We are about to hit a Population Crisis

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We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby [Egg]Egg » Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:36 am

At the start of the century, we had 6 billion people. 6 years ago, we hit 7 billion people. As of last year, we have 7.4 billion people living here, mostly from poor countries. By 2030, we will have an extra 2 billion people considering the rule of 40+ million people added each year. With more people, we will have a water crisis, which means a food crisis, killing people from starvation. Will we have a future with an overpopulated world of which we will have to conquer the entire solar system to sustain ourselves, or will we have a fine future?
To understand the population crisis, we have to understand the demographic transition.
Let's go back to the 1750s, where everywhere (including Britain) was in stage 1.
Stage 1 explained:
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In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high, and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. Family planning and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, birth rates were essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children. Emigration depressed death rates in some special cases (for example, Europe and particularly the Eastern United States during the 19th century), but, overall, death rates tended to match birth rates, often exceeding 40 per 1000 per year. Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by carrying water, firewood, and messages, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes, preparing food, and working in the fields. Raising a child cost little more than feeding him or her; there were no education or entertainment expenses. Thus, the total cost of raising children barely exceeded their contribution to the household. In addition, as they became adults they become a major input to the family business, mainly farming, and were the primary form of insurance for adults in old age. In India, an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution. While death rates remained high there was no question as to the need for children, even if the means to prevent them had existed.
During this stage, the society evolves in accordance with Malthusian paradigm, with population essentially determined by the food supply. Any fluctuations in food supply (either positive, for example, due to technology improvements, or negative, due to droughts and pest invasions) tend to translate directly into population fluctuations. Famines resulting in significant mortality are frequent. Overall, population dynamics during stage one are comparable to those of animals living in the wild.
Then the industrial revolution happened and bought the greatest living condition changes since the agricultural revolution; which had happened thousands of years earlier. People went from being peasants to workers. Items were mass-produced and caused advancements in medicine, food, and sanitation. Britain essentially stepped up the living game with this. Stage 2 went on, with high birth rates and low death rates causing a population explosion. Stage 3, birth rates slow down, stage 4 balance of birth/death rates.
"But with all countries in 4 stages everything will be fine right?"
No. You see, let's take the country Nintendo was made in as an example. Japan is actually in a reverse population crisis (falling population). Since the average lifespan for the Japanese is over 80 due to their fish-rich diet, the fertility rates are falling because the females are working for money. As of 2017, Japan has 126,045,211 people and the number is actually lower than 2015 (126,573,481) and by 2100 it will only be 83 million. So saying that the demographic transition prevents crisis is like trying to make a good piece of music with no software. Surely, you could do it but it wouldn't end well.
Another factor is child mortality. We had quite a fall in child mortality; global child mortality fell from 18.2% in 1960 to 4.3% in 2015. While that may not sound quite a lot, it's still quite a deal with the explosion. If you think that's high, in 18th century Sweden every third child died, and in 19th century Germany every second child died. This is why programs that help advance education and lower child mortality are very important. So for now we shouldn't worry about population crisis.
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby Danny » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:44 am

Title wrote:We are about to hit a Population Crisis
[Egg]Egg wrote:So for now we shouldn't worry about population crisis.
If we shouldn't worry about it, why is it a crisis...? Seems to me like this is just the next big scare to get people talking. That aside, this has been an "issue" that the media has been injecting into peoples' subconscious for the past couple of decades, at least since the Cold War as far as I'm aware.
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby PixelPest » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:47 am

I think the point is that whether we worry about it or not it's going to happen anyway

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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby Danny » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:49 am

PixelPest wrote:I think the point is that whether we worry about it or not it's going to happen anyway
Isn't that what I just said more or less?
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby FireyPaperMario » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:12 am

Let's hope that the overpopulation crisis doesn't end up in disaster! Plus, why hasn't the scientists found another planet that supports life on Earth?

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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby Danny » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:27 am

NintendoOtaku93 wrote:Let's hope that the overpopulation crisis doesn't end up in disaster! Plus, why hasn't the scientists found another planet that supports life on Earth?
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa ... ets-around
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby PixelPest » Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:00 am

NintendoOtaku93 wrote:Let's hope that the overpopulation crisis doesn't end up in disaster! Plus, why hasn't the scientists found another planet that supports life on Earth?
It's not that there aren't planets that won't support life, it's that we don't have technology to get there in a reasonable amount of time and/or the resources to create a stable and self-sustainable population

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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby onpon4 » Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:47 am

Populations don't just grow indefinitely. They grow until there are so many people that famine happens and sends them down again. This is not unusual.

Of course it's bad (suffering and death is always bad), and we should do our best to solve it, but it's not a "crisis". It's just a problem that has existed since the beginning of time, because nature is cruel. And it's only getting better; we're discovering new ways to feed larger numbers of people with fewer resources, and we're preventing millions of unwanted pregnancies with birth control. The fact that we're moving toward a world without famine is something to be celebrated, even if we aren't there yet.

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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby [Egg]Egg » Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:02 pm

[Egg]Egg wrote:So for now we shouldn't worry about population crisis.
If we shouldn't worry about it, why is it a crisis...? Seems to me like this is just the next big scare to get people talking. That aside, this has been an "issue" that the media has been injecting into peoples' subconscious for the past couple of decades, at least since the Cold War as far as I'm aware.[/quote]
Over time the fertility rates will decline.
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby ZipZap » Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:51 am

i suggest we kill the sperm
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby Danny » Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:53 pm

[Egg]Egg wrote:
[Egg]Egg wrote:So for now we shouldn't worry about population crisis.
If we shouldn't worry about it, why is it a crisis...? Seems to me like this is just the next big scare to get people talking. That aside, this has been an "issue" that the media has been injecting into peoples' subconscious for the past couple of decades, at least since the Cold War as far as I'm aware.
Over time the fertility rates will decline.
You do realize that the margin that they will decline at is extremely minuscule, yes?

By the way, nice job butchering the quotes.
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Re: We are about to hit a Population Crisis

Postby Waddle » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:01 am

World population will stabilize at 9 billion so we just gotta prepare for that and we'll be cool

until then let's worry about cybercrime, nuclear warfare and terrorism, shall we?
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